According to the IT Forecast study from Context, the anticipated economic rebound predicted for the second half of 2024 is gaining traction, as evidenced by a 2.1% increase in Q2 2024 revenues. This marks the first positive quarterly growth since Q1 2023.
However, experts are cautious about the outlook for the end of the year. Although the upturn is palpable, reaching the high end of annual growth forecasts, estimated at 3%, will depend on several factors, including a significant recovery in notebook sales (volume sector) and increased investment in technology infrastructures (value sector).
The distribution market is expected to grow by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2024. An acceleration of this growth is expected in the fourth quarter, boosted by the lowering of comparison bases, an increase in mobile hardware sales, and continued progress in software-related sectors.
For the third quarter of 2024, forecasts indicate that growth in the volume and value sectors should remain at similar levels. However, from the fourth quarter onwards, the situation will change: the value sector, driven by software and storage solutions, will overtake the volume sector.
From the first signs of the third quarter, the volume sector seems to be performing better than expected, thanks to a solid performance in July, driven by increases in consumables, printers, personal systems and telecommunications.
2024 forecast by sector and countryĀ
After two years of decline, the personal systems segment is expected to play a leading role in IT market growth in 2024. However, other volume sectors, such as monitors and printers, are likely to find it difficult to maintain their revenues. Infrastructure results will remain negative until the fourth quarter, due to a slowdown in new orders and the depletion of backlogs accumulated in 2023. The software sector, on the other hand, should remain solid throughout the year.
Context anticipates overall IT market growth in 2024 of between 2.1% and -2.6%, with a mid-point of around 0.3%.
In 2023, all IT markets in the European region recorded negative results. However, forecasts for 2024 are more encouraging, with a gradual stabilization.
- Germany and the UK recovered well in Q2 2024 compared to -13% and -4% (respectively) in Q1 2024. In early 2024, the UK was struggling with low economic growth and deferral of projects. Activity took off in March, driven by huge government software infrastructure projects. It is looking up further, following the rise in consumer and business confidence, and performance has been strong in all areas.
- In Q2 2024,Italy saw growth for the first time since Q3 2022. With more public investment anticipated; we remain upbeat about the countryās prospects.
- France suffered a blow in June with the uncertainty caused by unexpected legislative elections. The Olympics had a positive effect but we wait for the autumn to see if there is a recovery in confidence.
- Spain had a challenging quarter, following strong Q2 2023 results. We see sales here returning to growth in Q4 2024.
For further details on the Context report, please contact our expert Antonio Garcia at antonio.garcia@econocom.com.
Context forecasts, analytics and data-management solutions are embedded in the information systems of the world’s major technology companies. They track over $200 billion of sales transactions for the global ITC channel every year. Headquartered in the UK, they have more than 400 staff operates from locations all over the world.
